Before the article: This article is carefully made by the national nursery stock supply and demand analysis and research group of Beijing Forestry University organized by the State Forestry and grassland administration state owned forest farm and seedling management department! Reliable data and reasonable prediction! Hope that the majority of seedlings, collection or seriously make notes!
In order to do a good job in the resumption of production of seedlings and the supply of afforestation seedlings in the next two years, the state-owned forest farm and seedling management department of the State Forestry and grassland Administration organized the national seedling supply and demand analysis research group of Beijing Forestry University and other units to summarize the afforestation information and seedling production and supply information in recent years in all parts of the country, prepare and complete the national seedling supply and demand analysis report 2020, and put forward the following suggestions: Suggestions for previous seedling production.
1、 Analysis on the supply and demand of seedlings in China
（1） Overall supply and demand of seedlings in China
1. Supply and demand of seedlings in China from 2015 to 2018
The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China points out that "green water and green mountains are golden mountains and silver mountains". With the attention to the ecological environment and the promotion of ecological civilization construction in China, higher requirements are put forward for the quantity and quality of seedlings supply. In recent years, the area of seedlings, the supply of seedlings and the actual use of seedlings in China tend to be stable and keep at a high level.
2. Forecast of national seedling demand in 2020
With the implementation of the strategy of Rural Revitalization and the increasing emphasis on the ecological environment, the greening market will reach its peak in the past three years. It is expected that there will be two main trends in the future:
First, the demand for color leaf trees and container seedlings increased. In order to enhance the effect of urban seasonal change and enrich the effect of green color, a large number of color leaf trees are used in the greening project, which promotes the demand of color leaf trees, but the seedling price of such trees is too high at present. The related departments predict that the varieties with good prospects of colorful leaf species in the future are: Ulmus pumila, Acer truncatum, etc.
In addition, the greening project has improved the standard of seedlings, which requires higher and higher integrity and survival rate of seedlings. Container seedling has the characteristics of no seasonal limitation, good integrity and high survival rate. Especially in 2020, the demand space of container seedling is large. Moreover, at present, the cultivation of large and medium-sized container seedlings in China is limited, which can not be supplied to the market in large quantities, and there is a large development space.
Second, at present, the demand of social development for ecological environment is higher and higher, and the country also pays more and more attention to the construction of ecological civilization and forestry development. Among them, improving the forest coverage, multiple trees, planting good trees and other measures are important measures for the development of forestry and ecological civilization. The price and demand of large-scale seedlings (DBH of more than 15cm) and local trees are increasing. The northern market favors evergreen plants, while the demand for deciduous trees in the south is increasing. However, at present, some tree species in the arbor species nursery specifications are still small. In addition, the demand for aquatic plants, ground cover plants, fruit trees and other vegetation is strong.
In addition, the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic situation may affect the following trends: first, the epidemic caused many forest works to be closed down or delayed, especially in southern provinces, and some of them were planned to be afforestation in spring, and some might be converted to rainy season or autumn afforestation. Therefore, the demand for container seedlings would increase. Two, after the epidemic, the planting and seed bidding were concentrated. Carrying out the project will lead to a large number of short-term procurement of engineering seedlings; third, the competition of nursery seedlings will increase, in which arbor seedlings and hedgerow seedlings are likely to be centralized on the market after the end of the epidemic, and price war is inevitable. On the whole, it is expected that the actual use of seedlings in 2020 will decrease, about 12.6 billion.
（2） Analysis on the supply and demand of seedlings by species in China
Based on the comprehensive analysis of 67 major afforestation seedlings in 2018, the overall conclusion is as follows:
1. Compared with the previous years, there are more than 30 species (R ＞ 2.5) in the serious oversupply of seedlings, namely, Longbai, wolfberry, willow, azalea, peony, Chinese pine, northeast yew, spruce, camphor pine, beech, Qinghai Spruce, cherry blossom, Caragana, ginkgo, crape myrtle, osmanthus, privet, black poplar, walnut, Fatong, peach, seabuckthorn, white wax, Phoebe Black locust, ash, elm, loblolly pine, flower stick.
In 2020, it is suggested that the above tree species should not continue to develop.
2. There are 18 species (1.5 ＜ R ≤ 2.5) with relatively surplus seedlings supply, which are: clove, huashansong, Begonia, apricot, Platycladus orientalis, Sophora japonica, black pine, apple, Platanus acerifolia, maple, shuttle, Cryptomeria, larch, Loropetalum chinense, Pinus massoniana, Euonymus, poplar and bamboo.
In 2020, it is suggested that the above tree species can be carefully developed.
3. There are 14 species (1 ＜ R ≤ 1.5) in the basic balance of seedling supply and demand, which are wetland pine, Chinese fir, maple, camphor, Korean pine, Rosa roxburghii, camellia, Luan tree, Schima superba, forsythia, catalpa, prickly ash, Ligustrum lucidum, Photinia rubra.
In 2020, it is suggested that the above tree species can be properly developed.
4. There are 5 species (R ≤ 1) with serious shortage of seedlings, which are eucalyptus, grape, Populus tomentosa, hibiscus and Fraxinus mandshurica.
In 2020, it is suggested that eucalyptus should not be vigorously developed due to the influence of afforestation policies in some provinces and regions, and other species other than Eucalyptus can be vigorously developed.
2、 Analysis on supply and demand of seedlings in different regions
（1） Northeast China
This area includes Heilongjiang Province, Jilin Province, Liaoning Province and the region where Inner Mongolia Forest Industry (Forestry) group company is located.
1. Overall supply and demand of seedlings in Northeast China
(1) Supply and demand of seedlings in Northeast China in 2015-2018
The northeast area is very wide, and the soil is suitable for the growth of trees. Therefore, the forestry development in Northeast China is good, and it has become an important forestry base in China. The forest coverage rate in Northeast China is high, and the seedling market is relatively stable, but there is still a certain development space.
(2) Forecast of seedling demand in Northeast China in 2020
In recent years, many new policies have been issued in Northeast China, focusing on the "Three North" five phase project (2011-2050), such as natural forest resource protection project in Heilongjiang Province, ecological system restoration project in Changbai Mountain, forest tending project in Liaoning Province, etc. In addition, each province has formulated the 13th five year plan for forestry development and the plan for rural beautification and greening. According to the supply and demand of seedlings in recent years, it is predicted that in 2020, the use of seedlings in Northeast China will be basically the same as that in previous years, but it will decrease slightly, about 1 billion trees, and the use of common tree species such as Korean pine, poplar, Larix olgensis will decrease. In addition, the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic situation may affect the overall utilization of seedlings in the region.
2. Analysis on the supply and demand of seedlings by species in Northeast China
31 main afforestation seedlings in Northeast China were analyzed. The conclusions are as follows:
(1) There are 9 species (r > 2.5) with serious oversupply of seedlings, which are wax, sugar maple, Xanthoceras, willow, Taxus cuspidata, hazelnut, Ginkgo biloba, Betula platyphylla and flowering shrub.
In 2020, it is suggested that the above tree species should not continue to develop.
(2) There are 14 species (1.5 ＜ R ≤ 2.5) with relative excess supply of seedlings, which are camphor pine, indigo fruit, apricot, maple, elm, flat apricot, Platycladus orientalis, Larix olgensis, Larix japonicus, Picea koraiensis, Hippophae rhamnoides, Amorpha fruticosa, Pinus tabulaeformis and raspberry.
In 2020, it is suggested that the above tree species can be carefully developed.
(3) There are four species (1 ＜ R ≤ 1.5) in the basic balance of supply and demand of seedlings, which are Pinus koraiensis, catalpa, Fraxinus mandshurica and poplar.
In 2020, it is suggested that the above tree species can be properly developed.
(4) There are four species (R ≤ 1) with serious shortage of seedlings supply, which are larch in Xing'an, Robinia pseudoacacia, Korean pine in Siberia and Juglans mandshurica.
In 2020, it is suggested that the above tree species can be vigorously developed.
（2） North China
This area includes Beijing, Tianjin, Shanxi, Hebei and Inner Mongolia.
1. Overall supply and demand of seedlings in North China
(1) Supply and demand of seedlings in North China in 2015-2018
The nursery area in North China is fluctuating, with a slight decrease in 2018 compared with 2017. The amount of seedlings available for afforestation decreased, but the actual amount of seedlings remained unchanged.
(2) Forecast of seedling demand in North China in 2020
In recent years, a number of new afforestation projects and new projects have been launched in North China. It is mainly about the construction of national reserve forest in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region, the new round of afforestation and afforestation action of one million mu in Beijing and the 13th five year plan to deal with climate change, the "Millennium show forest" project in xiong'an new area of Hebei Province, the green Hebei key project, the pilot project of new large-scale forest farm, the land greening project in Shanxi Province and the project of returning farmland to forest. Tianjin canal and water system afforestation project, country forest park afforestation project, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Beijing Tianjin sandstorm source control phase II project, etc. At present, the demand for short and medium-term timber species, long-life, stress-resistant, food source, beautiful local trees, fruit trees and dry fruit plants is increasing in North China. However, the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic situation is expected to reduce the actual use of seedlings in North China in 2020, about 1 billion 900 million plants.
2. Analysis on the supply and demand of seedlings of different species in North China
35 main seedlings in North China in 2018 were analyzed, and the conclusions are as follows:
(1) There are 19 species (r > 2.5) with serious oversupply of seedlings, including Xanthoceras sorbifolia, Amorpha fruticosa, spruce, chestnut, camphor pine, Chinese pine, willow, Pinus bungeana, Caragana, walnut, elm, elm, pear, lilac, Hippophae rhamnoides, mountain peach, Robinia pseudoacacia, Larix olgensis and Larix principis rupprechtii.
In 2020, it is suggested that the above tree species should not continue to develop.
（2） There are 10 species (1.5 < R ≤ 2.5) with relative oversupply of seedlings, which are: Sophora japonica, Platycladus orientalis, apricot, ash, poplar, elm, Berberis, spear, elm and five horned maple.
In 2020, it is suggested that the above tree species can be carefully developed.
(3) There are three kinds (1 ＜ R ≤ 1.5) in the basic balance of supply and demand of seedlings, which are peach, apple and forsythia.
In 2020, it is suggested that the above tree species can be properly developed.
(4) There are three kinds of seedlings (R ≤ 1) in serious shortage, which are grape, Haloxylon ammodendron and Caragana microphylla.
In 2020, it is suggested that the above tree species can be vigorously developed.
（3） Northwest China
This area includes Shaanxi Province, Gansu Province, Qinghai Province, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.
1. Overall supply and demand of seedlings in Northwest China
(1) Supply and demand of seedlings in Northwest China in 2015-2018
Northwest China is a vast area, but the ecological environment is very fragile. It is the main battlefield of land greening and the key object of national ecological poverty alleviation. China's western development policy has greatly improved the supply and demand of its nursery stock market. The specific data of supply and demand of seedlings in 2015-2018 are as follows:
(2) Forecast of seedling demand in Northwest China in 2020
Northwest China is an important ecological barrier in China. In recent years, the key ecological functional areas of Liupanshan in Ningxia have a rainfall of more than 400mm for afforestation ("13th five year plan"), natural forest resources protection, woody grain and oil base construction in Qinghai Province ("13th five year plan"), advantageous and characteristic forest industry construction ("13th five year plan"), land greening in Shaanxi Province (2020-2050), national reserve forest, key protective forest construction and natural resources However, the protection of forest resources, the ecological protection belt in the core area of Xinjiang Silk Road Economic Belt (2017-2020), the construction of ecological security barrier and the poverty alleviation of ecological industry in Gansu Province have been steadily promoted. Large area afforestation has increased the demand for good varieties and strong seedlings. In addition to the planning of characteristic forest industry, local tree species will be further developed. At the same time, ecological poverty alleviation will expand economic seedlings