New crown epidemic to Chinese wood industry enterprises
What are the impacts?
Cheng Baodong, Qin Guangyuan, Zhang Lulu, Zhang Qian, Zhou yingying
Beijing Forestry University
In early December 2019, the new crown epidemic occurred in Wuhan. After several weeks of spread, it broke out completely around the Spring Festival. Because novel coronavirus pneumonia is highly infectious and long incubation period, the mobility of infected individuals has not been strictly controlled in the early stage of the epidemic, which has resulted in significant spread throughout the country and even worldwide. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the nationwide implementation of super strong anti epidemic measures has achieved remarkable results. However, large-scale enterprise shutdown and nationwide super mandatory isolation measures have also brought huge economic costs, which have brought different degrees of serious impact to all walks of life. Objective assessment of the exogenous impact of the new crown epidemic on China's industrial economy has important policy implications for easing the pressure of production and operation of enterprises in various industries.
Wood industry is an important part of China's forestry industry, which has the characteristics of low energy consumption, less pollution, renewable resources and so on. It has a great development space in the future green development of national economy. Although it has become a big country in the world's timber industry, it is still a labor-intensive industry mainly invested by private capital, which is in the critical stage of industrial transformation and upgrading. This industrial development characteristics and industrial development stage make the wood industry more vulnerable to the impact of the new crown epidemic. Under the impact of the new crown epidemic, what are the main difficulties encountered by wood industry enterprises? How much is the impact? What are the urgent policies for wood industry enterprises?
With the correct guidance and support of the Department of development and reform and the Department of planning and finance of the State Forestry and grassland administration, the research team led by Professor Cheng Baodong, director general of the national science and technology innovation alliance of wood safety, vice president of the school of economics and management of Beijing Forestry University, and vice professor Qin Guangyuan, Secretary General of the national science and technology innovation alliance of wood safety, carried out the "new crown epidemic to China Research on the impact of wood industry enterprises ". The purpose of this study is to clarify the survival status, development pressure and assistance measures of Chinese wood industry enterprises under the influence of the epidemic situation through the investigation of the micro level of enterprises.
From February 19, 2020 to February 27, 2020, 161 valid questionnaires were collected from wood processing, wood bamboo furniture manufacturing, paper and paper products enterprises through multi-party communication. The basic characteristics of sample enterprises are as follows: from the regional dimension, they cover 23 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government), among which the top five provinces are Jiangsu, Shandong, Guangxi, Hebei and Shanghai, with 33, 25, 18, 13 and 13 samples respectively. The provinces with more samples are also the ones with relatively good development and large industrial scale in China's wood industry Provinces.
Therefore, the samples in this study are representative in the regional dimension. From the perspective of industry classification, there are three industries involved: wood processing industry, furniture manufacturing industry, papermaking and paper products industry. The number of samples is 131, 24 and 6 in turn. From the perspective of business scale, enterprises are divided into above scale enterprises and below scale enterprises according to the standard of operating revenue of 20 million yuan. Among enterprises above scale, enterprises with operating revenue of 500 million yuan are defined as large enterprises above scale, and enterprises without exceeding are defined as medium enterprises above scale. According to this classification, there are 49 enterprises below designated size, 78 medium-sized and 34 large-scale enterprises above designated size. From the perspective of product sales type, the product sales market can be divided into domestic market and foreign market, which can be divided into three categories, namely, fully domestic enterprises, mixed enterprises (both domestic and international market sales), and fully foreign enterprises. The sample distribution is divided into 96, 58, and 7. From the perspective of the types of enterprises themselves, this study takes the production and processing type, product trade type and retail type as the criteria to distinguish, and the corresponding sample numbers are 119, 38 and 4 respectively. From the perspective of the source of raw materials used by enterprises, similar to the product sales market, raw materials market can also be distinguished according to the domestic market and international market. This study is divided into two categories, i.e. domestic raw materials and imported raw materials. The judgment criteria are that domestic raw materials account for more than 50% and imported raw materials account for more than 50%, with the number of 98 and 63 respectively. From the perspective of the brands owned by enterprises, according to whether there is an independent brand or a brand, they are divided into totally independent brand enterprises, hybrid enterprises with both independent brands and brand products, and fully brand enterprises, with the number of 99, 52, and 10, respectively. Based on the above dimensional analysis, the sample coverage is good, the sample heterogeneity is strong, and the research results have clear value and application orientation.
As for the investigation of the impact of the new crown epidemic on the management of wood industry enterprises, the following three conclusions are drawn:
One
The main conclusions of the study are as follows: 1
1) As for the difficulties caused by the shortage of protective materials, 11.80%, 9.94%, 21.12%, 19.25% and 37.89% of the enterprises gave 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 points respectively. The higher the score, the more serious the difficulties caused by the shortage of protective materials. It can be seen that as high as 78.26% of the enterprises give 3 scores or above, which highlights that under the impact of the epidemic, the shortage of protective materials has brought serious business difficulties to the wood industry enterprises. The impact of the shortage of protective materials on the wood industry enterprises in different regions, industries, scales, product sales strategies, types of enterprises, sources of raw materials and brand strategies has significant heterogeneity. At the same time, the impact of the shortage of protective materials on the same province, the same industry, the same scale, the same product sales strategy, the same type, similar source of raw materials, the same brand strategy also has obvious heterogeneity.
2) As for the difficulties brought by the low rate of return to work, 7.45%, 8.70%, 23.60%, 21.12%, 39.13% of the enterprises gave 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 points respectively. The higher the score, the more serious the difficulty caused by the low rate of return to work. It is not difficult to see that 83.85% of the enterprises give 3 points or more, and 60.25% give 4 points or more, which reflects that under the impact of the epidemic, the low rate of staff return to work has brought very serious business difficulties to the wood industry enterprises.
3) As for the difficulties brought by the shortage of new orders, 8.70%, 10.56%, 11.80%, 23.60% and 45.34% of the enterprises gave 1 point, 2 point, 3 point, 4 point and 5 point respectively. The higher the score is, the more serious the difficulties caused by the lack of new orders. It can be found that up to 80.74% of the enterprises give 3 scores or above, and 45.34% of the enterprises give the highest 5 scores, reflecting that under the influence of the epidemic, the shortage of new orders has made quite a number of wood industry enterprises difficult.
4) As for the difficulties caused by the blocked purchase of raw materials, 14.29%, 9.94%, 19.88%, 18.63% and 37.27% of the enterprises gave 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 points respectively. The higher the score is, the more serious the difficulties caused by the blocked purchase of raw materials are. It can be found that up to 75.78% of the enterprises give three or more scores, and 37.27% give five scores, reflecting that under the impact of the epidemic, the obstruction of raw material procurement has brought serious business difficulties to the wood industry enterprises, and the shortage of raw materials will directly lead to the inability of the enterprises to produce. In this case, even if the personnel are all in place and the protective materials are sufficient, the enterprise can not produce, but faces greater cost pressure, which makes the enterprise's operation risk increase sharply.
5) As for the difficulties brought by the rising cost of operation, 5.59%, 7.45%, 12.42%, 24.84% and 49.69% of the enterprises gave 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 points respectively. The higher the score is, the more serious the difficulty caused by the rising cost of operation. It can be found that up to 86.95% of the enterprises give three or more scores, and nearly half (49.69%) give five scores, which highlights that under the impact of the epidemic, the rising operating cost has brought very serious operating difficulties to the wood industry enterprises, and nearly half of the enterprises may be on the verge of unsustainable.
6) As for the difficulties brought by the poor warehousing and logistics distribution, 4.35%, 7.45%, 18.63%, 21.12% and 48.45% of the enterprises gave 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 points respectively. The higher the score, the more serious the difficulty caused by the poor warehousing and logistics distribution. It can be seen that as high as 88.20% of the enterprises give three or more scores, and 48.45% give five scores, which highlights that under the impact of the epidemic, the poor warehousing and logistics distribution has brought serious business difficulties to the wood industry enterprises, and nearly half of the enterprises are facing serious difficulties.
7) As for the difficulties brought by the pressure of tax payment, 11.18%, 9.32%, 22.98%, 19.88% and 36.65% of the enterprises gave 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 points respectively. The higher the score, the more serious the difficulties caused by the high pressure of tax payment to the enterprise operation. It can be seen that as high as 79.51% of the enterprises give 3 points or more, which highlights that under the impact of the epidemic, the pressure of tax payment has brought serious business difficulties to most of the wood industry enterprises.
8) As for the difficulties brought by capital turnover, 8.70%, 4.97%, 18.63%, 18.63% and 49.07% of the enterprises gave 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 points respectively. The higher the score, the more serious the difficulty caused by the difficulty of capital turnover. It can be seen that up to 86.33% of the enterprises give three or more scores, and nearly half (49.07%) give five scores, which highlights that under the impact of the epidemic, the difficulty of capital turnover has brought serious business difficulties to the majority of wood industry enterprises. Almost half of the wood industry enterprises have a very high risk of capital turnover fracture, which needs to be paid close attention to and take effective measures in time To ensure the continuous capital turnover chain of the wood industry enterprises.
9) As for the difficulties brought by the rising labor cost, 8.70%, 9.32%, 15.53%, 29.19% and 37.27% of the enterprises gave 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 points respectively. The higher the score, the more serious the difficulty caused by the rising labor cost to the enterprise operation. It can be seen that as high as 81.99% of the enterprises give 3 scores or above, which highlights that under the impact of the epidemic, the rising labor cost has brought more serious business difficulties to the majority of wood industry enterprises.
Two
As for the impact of the new crown epidemic on the production and operation of wood enterprises in the first quarter of 2020, the main research conclusions are as follows:
1) At the regional level, it is expected that the epidemic will have a great impact on the operating revenue and order quantity of wood industry enterprises in the western region. The estimated proportion of the operating revenue and order quantity severely damaged is 54.17% and 45.83% respectively, which is significantly higher than that in the eastern region (32.14%, 32.14%) and the central region (44%, 36%). In terms of procurement cost, it is expected that the epidemic will have a more obvious negative impact on the wood industry enterprises in the central region, and 60% of the enterprises will face the pressure of rising procurement cost, which is about 15 and 6 percentage points higher than those in the eastern and western regions respectively. In terms of labor wage, the negative impact of the epidemic on labor wage of wood industry enterprises in various regions is roughly the same, with about 45% of wood industry enterprises expressing their labor