According to the data of ANRPC, in March 2020, the output of natural rubber in Asia was about 851.50 kilotons, an increase of 29.02% year on year, and the cumulative output of natural rubber in Asia from January to march was about 2662.10 kilotons, an increase of 0.95% year on year. The novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic was not serious in the first quarter of 2020 in the major rubber producing countries, resulting in natural rubber production and trade activities not affected, and natural rubber supply side relatively loose.
According to the preliminary estimates and forecasts of various countries, by the first quarter of 2020, the global consumption of natural rubber will drop by 19.6% year on year. Consumption is expected to decline 1.5% in the second quarter compared with the same period last year, while production is expected to increase 3.6% in the second quarter compared with the same period last year. Now it seems that natural rubber will be in a situation of oversupply in 2020. It is unlikely that the price will rise.
According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, in March 2020, China imported 62000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year-on-year increase of 3.61%. From January to March, China imported 1659000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber, a year-on-year increase of 5.60%. From the perspective of import data, the market is still in a state of oversupply and overall demand is weak. In the later stage, the market is mainly de stocking. As of the end of March, the national natural rubber inventory is high, which can meet the domestic demand for three months, and the inventory is still in the upward cycle.
Let's wait for the price to drop! According to the Convention, the rubber in Southeast Asia will enter the rubber cutting period in May, when the output of natural rubber will increase sharply, but the tire industry, as the main downstream market of natural rubber, is still depressed. At present, there are many tire factories in the world that are shut down. Due to the decline of terminal demand, the normal operation tire factories have reduced their production capacity. In a word, the enthusiasm of tire factories to purchase natural rubber is not high.
At present, the price of natural rubber is also constantly fluctuating, there is no minimum, only lower, which will also bring a good impact on the cost reduction of tire enterprises. With lower costs, tyre factories have capital to cut prices. With such weak market demand, price reduction and promotion is the best way.
You are welcome to say that at this critical moment, tire manufacturers should not think how to stabilize the price. They should keep an eye on their competitors, pay attention to the price reduction dynamics at any time, and keep up with the pace of the price war. Otherwise, in this turbulent 2020, some tire enterprises may be completely thrown out of the game.
According to the survey sample of tire business, how many tire dealers and stores still believe that the tire price will rise in 2020?
Of the 657 samples surveyed, less than 30% thought that the tire price would rise in 2020, 36% thought that it would not rise at the same level as last year, and even 33% thought it would. It is estimated that the inventory of these people who support the price reduction is relatively strong, and they are in urgent need of help to clean up the inventory.
Summarize the current situation of the upstream and downstream tire market: Rubber diving + crude oil slump + steel collapse + carbon black weakness + weak demand = tire price reduction / price war.
In 2019, the global automobile market is in a downturn, and the downward trend of tire market is an indisputable fact. Unexpectedly, the novel coronavirus outbreak in 2020 was once again a fatal blow to the tyre market. The market demand dropped again and again. The tire shops that sold dozens of tires in the past ten days sold one or two tires in ten days.
From February 20 to March 30, the survey data of tire shop sales showed that 96% of them sold less than 10 tires per day, and 2% of them sold more than 50 tires per day.
This kind of data reflects the most real market demand. No one buys tires. The rising price of selling tires is "looking for shit"?
At present, in order to cope with the situation that the demand of tire market continues to decline due to the epidemic situation, tire enterprises have taken measures to stop production or reduce production. Many enterprises respond that the inventory is sufficient, or even too high. How to digest the inventory as soon as possible has become a headache for enterprises. It's possible to reduce the price, so don't think about it. Judging from the current market situation, tire companies are expected to maintain stability, but you don't want competitors to. Price war is inevitable. The tide of low price competition is coming.
(original, editor in charge: Jeff)
Long press QR code to join tire business
What is the final outcome of the bankrupt tire company? The United States and Japan withdraw from China? A picture starts with the great good news of American tire industry. Tire shops and repair garages are finally relieved that the factories are back to work in a large area. How about the countdown to the restart of global tire industry? What do foreigners think about China's tire industry speeding up brand shuffling in 2020? Global tire enterprises aim at the brand power ranking of big tires in China? A large number of stock tires will flow into the market in 2020. Can the stock tire business be done? The auto repair business was closed for rectification, the tire shop was forced to move away, and the tire business was even worse. Who is the first? Double Coin sold 10.44 million tires, 780 yuan per tire to control small overlord, gallop the extraordinary Road
Directly click "read the original" for tyre complaints