For more than a week, the main rubber contract in 2009 has maintained low volatility. With the coming of May Day holiday, the short-term production capacity of rubber is expected to shut down and go to storage. Recently, the state has released a series of policies to support the consumption of new energy vehicles and automobile industry, and the downstream consumption in the second quarter is expected to pick up. But the current situation of overseas epidemic is still not optimistic. Although the United States implements the call to return to work actively, there are still many tire manufacturing enterprises in the state of suspension. What are the current fundamentals? Will there be a short-term direction after May 1? In terms of spot price, from the perspective of current spot price, the price of chemicals and their substitutes is less and less affected by the fluctuation of crude oil. The mainstream price of rubber spot market has remained unchanged for a while. In Yunnan, the total latex price is 10500 yuan / ton, No. 5 rubber price is 9900 yuan / ton, and No. 10 rubber price is 9700 yuan / ton. The spot price fluctuates around 10000 yuan. In terms of supply, at present, it is in the cutting stage of new rubber season. In China, Yunnan and Hainan have been cutting in a small scale. Recently, there has been a relatively obvious continuous precipitation in Yunnan, and the drought has been alleviated obviously. However, pests and diseases are still the main factors restricting short-term output. On the Thai side, the drought situation has also improved, with about 70% of the cutting in the northeast and still recovering in the south. As the orders of the processing plants have not been significantly recovered, the short-term rubber receiving intention is general, and the price of raw materials is slightly under pressure, but it is unlikely to decline significantly again according to the preliminary verification. In terms of glue, the price of raw materials was slightly under pressure after gradually cutting. The price of glue rose to 38.2 THB / kg, but the price of cup glue fell to 26.7 THB / kg. The glue price has been at a low price level for a long time. Logically speaking, such a low glue price will reduce the enthusiasm of rubber farmers for rubber cutting. However, if the overseas epidemic situation still hasn't improved significantly in the second quarter, even if the supply of glue at the supply end is reduced, the existing rubber stock can be digested for a long time. In terms of import and inventory, in March 2020, China's natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) imports reached 602000 tons, up 3.61% year on year. From January to March 2020, China's natural rubber and synthetic rubber imports totaled 1.658 million tons, up 5.54% year on year. In terms of inventory, the inventory in Qingdao free trade zone is still at a high level. Qingdao continues to accumulate inventory. The inventory in the zone is stable, and the general trade inventory is tight. At present, it has reached a high level of 820000 tons. The downstream demand is still insufficient, there are still many imported cargoes in the later stage, and it will take a long time for the inventory to meet the turning point.
On the demand side, due to the impact of the overseas pneumonia epidemic, export orders began to be significantly dragged down, and it is expected that the export data in April will be significantly lower. However, with the resumption of work in Europe and the United States, the demand may improve month on month. At home, some downstream factories cut down their operating rate. Tire factories have low purchasing intention, sufficient inventory and buy as they use. As of April 23, the operating rate of all steel tire in China is 63.18% (- 0.68%), and that of half steel tire in China is 59.48% (- 2.55%). In addition, with the continuous introduction of supporting policies for automobile consumption by the state, some tire factories are driven by sales promotion policies, and the delivery situation is relatively smooth, but on the whole, there is still a large gap between the return of demand to normal level. Summary of Views: the new rubber season has been cut, Southeast Asia Thailand and Vietnam have been cut, but the overall output is low, the current glue price is at a historical low, and later pay attention to the enthusiasm of rubber farmers. At present, the domestic rubber stock is still at a high level, and the turning point still needs to wait for the recovery of demand. Recently, the state issued the support policy for new energy vehicles, and the subsidy for car purchase reached 2022. At present, the overall supply and demand are still in a loose state of oversupply. In May, we mainly focused on the emotional benefits brought by the NPC and the CPPCC and the possible release of potential support policies for automobile consumption. We still need to wait for the recovery of demand silently. ■ part of the data in this article are from Huatai futures, cnr.com and Nanhua futures, which are for reference only and do not represent the views of this platform and its institutions. Therefore, the market entry risk should be borne by itself. There are risks in futures market, so we need to be cautious in investment! Source: niuqian copyright notice: Hexun futures not only publishes original articles such as market review and industry key points interpretation of futures market, but also devotes itself to the exchange and sharing of excellent financial articles. If some articles fail to contact the original author in time and involve copyright issues, please contact to delete them in time.