The content of this article is reproduced from other media and does not represent the position of Shidong rubber. If any investor operates on this basis, please bear the risk.
Author: Jin Lianchuang Tang Xiaonan
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
In April, the imported natural rubber market in Qingdao was up and down. As of April 23, the spot price of str20 in Qingdao free trade zone was 1160 US dollars / ton, up 8.41% from the beginning of the month; the spot price of RMB mixed rubber was 9400 yuan / ton, up 6.82% from the beginning of the month.
During the month, the buying atmosphere of imported mixed rubber was active, mainly due to the increase of arbitrage demand. First, the spread of spot price increases, and the willingness of arbitrage to ship decreases, which leads to a relative decrease in buying, while the increase in buying in the intermediate market derived from the addition of some arbitrage orders increases the market price; second, the price of mixed rubber falls to a historical low, which stimulates the industry's intention to buy at the bottom of the market, and the traders make more unilateral, and the factories replenish goods, so as to promote market transactions; third, the VAT is reduced and passed on Smell has promoted merchants' buying of spot goods; fourth, the low price of rubber has inhibited the enthusiasm of rubber farmers to cut rubber, and it is currently in the low production season in the main production area of Southeast Asia Tianjiao, with less glue output, limited new rubber output, weak willingness of foreign traders to ship goods, and the same reduction of domestic traders' willingness to continue to empty; fourth, under the boost of a series of stimulus policies, investors are optimistic, the US stock rebounded in the first ten days of April, and Hong The market pessimism has improved. With the market rebound, merchants replenishment delivery, market inquiry heating up.
But overall, the demand of downstream tire factories is still weak. The situation of tire factories is polarized, and the starting load of some large factories is acceptable. However, due to the poor foreign trade orders and the accumulation of finished product inventory, we should not only protect the current market, but also avoid the continuous accumulation of inventory, so we have to take turns to have holidays in the production line, and the production load of some tire factories is less than 50%. Although the overall start-up of the tire factory was temporarily stable in the month, the May Day holiday will come, some factories will cut production or stop work for holidays, and downstream demand is expected to decline. During the month, the atmosphere of standard rubber delivery and investment in Qingdao free trade zone was flat. Due to the lack of terminal demand, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao continues to grow, and the inventory inside and outside the area has increased to more than 800000 tons. Especially, the storage capacity outside the area is tight, so new warehouses have to be added to store goods.
Jinlianchuang believes that the natural rubber market in May is still hard to be optimistic. First of all, we should pay attention to the epidemic situation abroad. Although Europe and the United States plan to resume work, we need to pay attention to the progress of resumption. At present, the early orders of tire factory are basically delivered, and the orders from April to May are postponed or cancelled. With the accumulation of inventory, the probability of future production reduction will increase. Secondly, from February to April, the market of Tianjiao fell sharply, resulting in huge loss of profits for businesses, and affected by the epidemic situation, rubber imports and downstream product exports were affected. As the time line lengthened, the default risk of businesses in the market will also increase. Finally, pay attention to the opening of overseas production areas. It is reported that the north-east of Vietnam and Thailand has been opened. In May, with the expansion of the opening area, the supply of new rubber will gradually increase. Therefore, it is expected that Tianjiao market will still be in the bottom shock stage.
Source: Jin Lianchuang
Recommended reading
Variable natural rubber supply in the second quarter
Guizhou tire net profit increased by 50% last year
Relative excess supply of rubber fundamentals will continue
Multiple tire companies restart US factories
Train transportation in Thailand and Malaysia recovers stability; rubber industry in Thailand tends to improve
Double star ranked first in China's brand power index domestic automobile tire industry for four consecutive years
The reply number "1" of SDR can be used to query the settlement price and average price of this month and last month's SICOM;
The reply number "2" can query the latest daily price of central rubber market in songka, Thailand;
The reply number "3" can be found in the "Dr. Jiao lecture" series.
Long press QR code to follow us
Click to read the original text for more highlights