One
Market Review
Today's market should confuse a lot of investment friends, out of a very standard anti-V, in this case, there are a lot of immature investment friends are easy to make the mistake of being slapped on both sides, losing money in long time.
If I read yesterday's article, I can grasp this morning's downward trend. I pointed out at that time that the market would go down if it broke through 9860, but it would start to rebound if it didn't give the expected point 9580, but if you kept up with it and cut the stop loss in the morning, when the market rebounded, you would have left with the profit.
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Two
Fundamentals
Global epidemic spread limits new rubber production
Since April, novel coronavirus pneumonia data in Southeast Asia have increased rapidly, becoming the third wave of global epidemic after Europe and America. As the main natural rubber production area in the world, Southeast Asia's rubber planting area and production ratio are as high as
More than 90%, the rapid spread of the epidemic in this area will seriously affect the export of new rubber production. It is understood that at present, trading companies and rubber processing plants in Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia fail to work normally, the demand for raw materials is reduced, and the enthusiasm of rubber farmers is serious
Frustrated. In general, the opening time of the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia has been postponed. Affected by the epidemic, the output will be reduced after the opening.
In China, although rubber plantations have been cut in some areas of Yunnan and Hainan, the drought this spring is more obvious, the rubber trees suffer from powdery mildew increased, the short-term supply and release amount is limited, and the real full-scale cutting will be after the middle of May. Therefore, the supply pressure of new rubber is not
Large, but the stock supply is still worthy of attention. At present, the stock of natural rubber in China continues to grow. The rubber stock in Qingdao has exceeded 800000 tons, a new high since the statistics. There are 15-60 days in Tianjiao warehouse of downstream plant, and the buyer's purchase intention is not satisfied
Strong, supply easing is expected to heat up. In general, China's overall rubber cutting has been delayed, and parts of southern Hainan have been preparing for cutting in succession. Only a small amount of trial cutting has been carried out in Yunnan production area, and it is expected to be cut in succession after May. It is affected by drought, powdery mildew, and low rubber price
Under the influence of many factors such as high spot stock and poor demand, the willingness of production areas to cut is not strong, and the expectation of new rubber production and supply is not strong.
Overseas demand shrinks domestic tire enterprises reduce load and control finished products
The global public health events continued to spread, and the negative impact on China's tire exports continued to increase. At present, Europe and America are the disaster areas of the epidemic. These two regions are not only the important market of global tire consumption, but also the tire of China
The main destination of the export. Although at present, domestic tire enterprises have returned to work in an all-round way and the driving load has been raised to a high level in the same period, in the face of shrinking external demand, the tire export volume is facing a downturn, which is bound to increase the risk of enterprise inventory and some foreign trade
It is a probability event that type a manufacturer stops production again. It is understood that since April, many tire factories in China have received notice from overseas customers to cancel orders or delay shipment. The export orders of half steel tire are reduced by more than 50%, and the export orders of all steel tire are reduced
More than 30% of China's tire export orders have significantly reduced the operating rate of tire factories under direct pressure.
In the case of shrinking export orders and slowing domestic shipments, some enterprises have begun to reduce the inventory of finished products. According to statistics, as of the week of April 17, the starting load of all steel tire was 63.86%, 10.98% lower than that of the same period last year; half steel
The starting load of tyres was 62.03%, down 995% compared with the same period last year. Affected by the year-on-year decline in the operating rate of tire enterprises, the tire output declined year on year. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, China's output of outer tubes in March was 71.404 million, a year-on-year increase
The decrease was 7.8%. From January to March, 152059000 outer tubes were produced, down 19.4% year on year. Although most of the domestic automobile enterprises have resumed work, due to the fact that the foreign industrial chain has not yet returned to normal, many brand tire manufacturers shut down their factories, resulting in poor demand
Overall rubber consumption remains weak. After the construction of tire enterprises was blocked, the purchase of raw rubber became cautious and the consumption expectation weakened.
Figure, operation rate trend of semi steel tire of domestic tire enterprises in 2017-2020
　　
Summary:
To sum up, the global economy is in a state of fragmentation, which leads to a significant reduction in demand for commodities. In the context of the global epidemic is still spreading, European and American car companies and tire factories have taken measures to stop production to deal with the prevention and control. Therefore, the domestic round
The significant reduction of orders from tire enterprises has also dragged down the demand for raw rubber. In the background of the stagnation of the whole industrial chain, although the pressure of new rubber supply in the new round cutting season is limited, Shanghai rubber market still faces the risk of the price center continuing to move down. Therefore, we are still high-altitude in operation.
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Main position
Today's position change is a bit interesting. The short positions are all adding positions before, but today they are decreasing, and the long positions that haven't acted before are adding positions substantially today. If we look carefully, we can see that the main force doesn't have much action, mainly Haitong is doing things here, and the main force is mostly waiting.
From the perspective of total position, short position is still dominant in 80767; 121373, so we can focus on the main trend of Yong'an and CITIC, and the rest of the estimates can't lift a big wave.
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technical analysis
Tomorrow, we will still focus on the support of 9860 line, which is still a watershed. If the market is strong, it will explore the pressure level of 10130 line, the previous day's high. If it breaks down, it will fall to a lower level.
Tomorrow's operation plan
1. If the market is directly opening at a low price, then pay attention to the stabilization supported by the 9860. If it is effectively stabilized, we will lay out some multiple orders, looking at the previous day's high of 10130. The second target is 10255
If the market goes up directly, we will focus on the stagflation short signal of today's high 10130 and 10255, breaking 9860 under the game
Note that we try our best to enter the site near these strong resistance levels in case of being swept.
Operation critical
High altitude is the main thing, low altitude is the auxiliary!
Summary of ＾＾＾＾＾＾＾＾＾＾＾＾＾＾＾＾＾
With the global economy shrinking, high inventories and sluggish market demand, it is prudent to wait for a rebound before shorting.
(please pay attention to futures VIP Club)
reminder:
Non cooperative customers, do not blindly single!
There are risks in the future market, so we need to be cautious in operation!
The short-term market is zero sum game. I think it is more exactly negative sum game, which determines that it is unlikely to meet everyone's demand for making money. So I can only help you to become more powerful and smarter as much as possible. Some people can learn something from my recovery, even if there is less loss, I have no efforts in vain!
*END*
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