Completion date of this report: April 25, 2020
abstract
Market review: this week's sharp earthquake in international oil prices caused a sharp fluctuation in the domestic energy market, and the rubber period price was affected by it, showing a V-shaped trend.
Macro environment: at present, the situation of the new crown epidemic is still severe, its impact on the U.S. economy is still continuing, and the development trend of the epidemic will still have a great impact on the macro market in the short term.
Supply and demand: in terms of supply, some parts of Yunnan and Hainan production areas have been cut, and then the release of supply is limited. The main production areas in Southeast Asia have not yet started a new round of rubber cutting, and the rubber supply will continue to be at a low level in the near future. In terms of demand, the impact of overseas epidemic on the foreign trade export channel of rotation enterprises is increasing, and some enterprises have begun to implement independent production control in order to alleviate the inventory pressure; the expected explosive recovery has not occurred in the domestic car market. Although the recent governments at all levels have successively issued policies to promote consumption, such as exemption of purchase tax for new energy vehicles in the next two years, the effect of boosting the car market still exists in the short term Doubt, rubber demand performance is still weak. In terms of inventory, the natural rubber inventory in the previous period continued to be at a low level in the same period of nearly four years, and the warehouse receipt inventory pressure was relatively small. However, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao continued to rise, and the natural rubber spot end inventory pressure was still large. In terms of cost, the price of Heai rubber raw materials in Thailand shows a fluctuating trend, and the rubber cost support is temporarily stable in the short term.
Operation suggestions: it is suggested that ru2009 contract should be high selling and low absorbing in the range of 9800-10250 yuan / ton; nr2006 contract should be high selling and low absorbing in the range of 8000-8500 yuan / ton. As the current market uncertainty is still large, investors still need to strictly control their positions and make stop loss plans.
Uncertain risks: the development trend of global new coronavirus pneumonia, the progress of domestic and foreign production areas, the recovery of domestic vehicle market, and the change of inventory in Qingdao
One
Market Review
This week, the sharp earthquake of international oil price made the domestic energy chemical market fluctuate greatly, and the rubber period price affected by it showed a V-shaped trend. As of April 24, the main natural rubber contract ru2009 of the previous period closed at 9960 yuan / ton, down 90 yuan / ton, or 0.90% compared with April 17; the main natural rubber contract nr20 of the previous period closed at 8160 yuan / ton, down 85 yuan / ton, or 1.03% compared with April 17.
On the spot side, this week's domestic spot price of full latex and No. 20 rubber is similar to that of futures, showing a V-shaped trend as well. As of April 24, the spot price of all latex in Shanghai is 9750 yuan / ton, the average price in the week is 9590 yuan / ton, 110 yuan / ton lower than the average price in the previous week; the spot price of all latex in Shandong is 9750 yuan / ton, 9610 yuan / ton in the week, 120 yuan / ton lower than the average price in the previous week; the spot benchmark price of str20 in Qingdao free trade zone is 1150 dollars / ton, 1145 dollars / ton in the week, and the average price in the previous week is 1145 dollars / ton The average price increased by 7 USD / T; the benchmark price of str20 mixed spot in Qingdao free trade zone was 1150 USD / T, and the average price in the week was 1145 USD / T, 7 USD / T higher than the average price in the previous week.
Two
Analysis of price influencing factors
1. Macro analysis
1.1 the number of initial jobless claims in the United States continues to fall, and when the number of continuous claims will fall becomes the key
Data released by the U.S. Department of labor on April 23 showed that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the week ended April 18 was 4.427 million, down for the third consecutive week, with an estimated 4.5 million; the number of continued claims for unemployment benefits in the week ended April 11 was 15.97 million, with an estimated 16.738 million. For the week ending April 18, the four week average for the number of initial jobless claims in the United States was 5.7865 million. Some organizations have commented that the number of initial claims is almost the same as the forecast, while the number of continued claims is lower than the forecast again. Although it is easy to make people think this is good news, we still need to be cautious. More importantly, we need to observe when the number of continued claims tends to be stable and begins to decline.
2. Supply and demand analysis
2.1 price fluctuation of rubber raw materials in Thailand
This week, the price of rubber raw materials in Thailand's Heai market failed to continue the recovery trend of the previous week, showing an overall trend of shock operation. As of April 24, the glue price in Thailand's Heai region was 38.2 baht / kg, with an average price of 38.14 baht / kg in the week, up 1.06 baht / kg from the previous week's average price; the cup glue price was 26.7 baht / kg, with an average price of 27.13 baht / kg in the week, up 0.09 baht / kg slightly from the previous week's average price.
2.2 the tire starts to fall and the enterprise's inventory pressure rises
At present, the impact of blocked foreign trade export channels on rotation enterprises still exists. Some enterprises try to transfer the foreign trade sales pressure to the domestic market. However, due to the general trading performance in the domestic market, the overall inventory pressure of manufacturers has increased, and the overall start-up of domestic rotation enterprises also fell this week. This week, the domestic steel tire and half steel tire market delivery performance is average, the overall delivery is limited.
In the week of April 23, the weekly operation rate of domestic full steel tire was 63.18%, 0.68% lower than that of the previous week, 11.41% lower than that of the same period in 2019; the weekly operation rate of half steel tire was 59.48%, 2.55% lower than that of the previous week, 12.29% lower than that of the same period in 2019.
2.3 the outbreak of demand has not yet appeared, and the retail of passenger car market has recovered steadily
According to the latest weekly data of the Federation of passenger cars, in the third week of April (13-19), the retail market of domestic passenger cars recovered relatively steadily, with an average daily retail volume of 37000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%; in the first three weeks of April (1-19), the overall retail market of passenger cars recovered relatively fast, with an average retail volume of 31100 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 7%, a significant recovery compared with the performance of the first three weeks of March. According to the Federation, from the perspective of recovery progress, the phenomenon of domestic automobile demand explosion growth is not prominent. If the growth rate of the first week and the second week is ironed out, the sales volume of rapid weekly growth is relatively stable year on year. Although the government has proposed a stimulus policy for the trolley Market and some urban policies have actually been implemented and come into effect, the initial effect of the policy is generally not outstanding, but wait until the policy is implemented The effect of the last bus before launch is obvious.
2.4 the futures warehouse receipts of the previous period decreased slightly, and the inventory in Qingdao continued to increase
Last week, the natural rubber Warehouse Receipt Inventory decreased slightly. As of April 24, the natural rubber inventory of the previous period was 239690 tons, a decrease of 1109 tons compared with April 17, and the futures Warehouse Receipt Inventory was 235210 tons, a decrease of 1740 tons compared with April 17, a decrease of 179400 tons compared with the same period of 2019; the rubber inventory of the previous period energy 20 was 79372 tons, an increase of 907 tons compared with April 17, and the futures Warehouse Receipt Inventory was 69270 tons, an increase of 1814 tons compared with April 17. The natural rubber inventory in Qingdao continued to increase. According to the latest statistics of Zhuo Chuang information, as of the end of April, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao was 819700 tons, an increase of 18200 tons on a month on month basis, including 190800 tons in the bonded area, a decrease of 3300 tons on a month on month basis, 628900 tons in general trade, an increase of 21500 tons on a month on month basis.
3. Position analysis
This week, the main natural rubber contract ru2009, both the long and short positions increased slightly. As of April 24, the top 20 positions of ru2009 contract multi parties had a total of 78147 positions, an increase of 797 positions compared with April 17, and the top 20 positions of empty parties had a total of 119918 positions, an increase of 273 positions compared with April 17, and a net position of 41771 positions, a decrease of 524 positions compared with April 17. From the perspective of position distribution, this week, the concentration of multiple positions in ru2009 contracts decreased slightly, while the concentration of short positions increased slightly. As of April 24, the top 5 positions of ru2009 contract multi-party positions accounted for 36.95% of the top 20 positions, down 0.89% from April 17; the top 5 positions of empty positions accounted for 49.75% of the top 20 positions, up 0.87% from April 17.
Three
Price difference analysis
1. Natural rubber spot price difference (spot futures)
From April 20 to April 24, the price difference between the spot and main futures contracts of natural rubber fluctuated between 1860 yuan / ton and 2240 yuan / ton, with the fluctuation range increasing by 60 yuan / ton compared with the previous week; the average price difference in the week was 2072 yuan / ton, narrowed by 15 yuan / ton compared with the previous week. On April 24, the current price difference of natural rubber in the period was 2240 yuan / ton, a substantial increase of 265 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.
2. Inter period price difference of natural rubber (ru2005-ru2009)
From April 20 to April 24, the price difference between ru2005 contract and ru2009 contract fluctuated between - 270 yuan / ton and - 305 yuan / ton, with the fluctuation range increasing by 20 yuan / ton compared with the previous week; the average price difference within the week was - 288 yuan / ton, with an increase of 17 yuan / ton compared with the previous week. On April 24, the price difference of natural rubber 5-9 was - 305 yuan / ton, 15 yuan / ton more than the previous trading day.
3. Price difference between full latex and 20 glue (full latex-20 glue)
From April 20 to April 24, the price difference between full latex and No. 20 rubber spot goods fluctuated between 1387.96 yuan / ton and 1619.65 yuan / ton, with the fluctuation range increased by 28.38 yuan / ton compared with the previous week; the average price difference within the week was 1503.39 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 202.76 yuan / ton compared with the previous week. On April 24, the difference between the spot price of full latex and No. 20 rubber was 1607.66 yuan / ton, an increase of 195.1 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.
From April 20 to April 24, the price difference between the main contract of natural rubber and the main contract of No. 20 rubber fluctuated between 1755 yuan / ton and 1870 yuan / ton, with the fluctuation range increased by 70 yuan / ton compared with the previous week; the average price difference in the week was 1790 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 17 yuan / ton compared with the previous week. On April 24, the price difference between the main contracts of all latex and 20 rubber futures was 1800 yuan / ton, 70 yuan / ton lower than the previous trading day.
Four
Market outlook and investment strategy
On the macro level, although the number of initial jobless claims in the United States continues to decline, the current situation of the new crown epidemic is still severe, and its impact on the U.S. economy is still continuing. In the short term, the development trend of the epidemic will still have a great impact on the macro market.
In terms of supply, some areas of Yunnan and Hainan production areas have been cut, and then the release of supply is limited. The main production areas in Southeast Asia have not yet started a new round of rubber cutting, and the rubber supply will continue to be at a low level in the near future. In terms of demand, the impact of the overseas epidemic on the foreign trade export channel of rotation enterprises is increasing, and some enterprises have begun to implement independent production control in order to alleviate the inventory pressure. The expected explosive recovery has not occurred in the domestic car market. Although governments at all levels have recently introduced policies to promote consumption, such as the exemption of purchase tax for new energy vehicles in the next two years, the effect of boosting the car market still exists in the short term Doubt, rubber demand performance is still weak. In terms of inventory, the natural rubber inventory in the previous period continued to be at a low level in the same period of nearly four years, and the warehouse receipt inventory pressure was relatively small. However, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao continued to rise, and the natural rubber spot end inventory pressure was still large. In terms of cost, the price of Heai rubber raw materials in Thailand shows a fluctuating trend, and the rubber cost support is temporarily stable in the short term. Generally speaking, the current rubber supply and demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, and its short-term trend is expected to be more affected by macro market sentiment, and it is expected that it will still be dominated by shock operation in the near future.
strategy
It is suggested that ru2009 contract should be in the range of 9800-10250 yuan / ton, while nr2006 contract should be in the range of 8000-8500 yuan / ton. As the current market uncertainty is still large, investors still need to strictly control their positions and make stop loss plans.
Author's name: Li Yanjie
Futures qualification No.: f3005100
Futures investment consulting practice certificate No.: z010942
Research Assistant: Liu Yang
Futures qualification No.: f3051528
Tel: 023-81157285
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